Tug of war over Syria

Enough engaging in one-upmanship! There is a lot more at stake than which bullyboy on the block has the biggest fist. Syrians are dying and fleeing; their babies are drowning or suffering from hypothermia on freezing, wet European roads. Their needs should take priority over all else.

Washington and Moscow should rise above their strained relationship over Ukraine to prove they can be a force for good despite their disparate regional interests.

Russia’s military intervention has embarrassed the White House. US efforts to decimate the Daesh in both Syria and Iraq have been exposed as half-hearted, which is why the Iraqi government was keen to invite Russia to join the fray until America warned that such an invitation would render Iraq its enemy. Numerous pundits, American and otherwise, have said that the Russian strategy has been far more forceful and cohesive than that of the Obama White House.

In light of the way America’s shoddy approach has been put to shame, the US-led coalition has greatly ramped-up its bombing campaigns and is cooperating with Kurdish forces—a move that’s garnered strong objections from Turkey that sees certain Kurdish groups as its enemy number one.

Why it took Russia’s entrée to galvanize President Obama to take meaningful action is anyone’s guess.

The good news is that at the very least the two competitors for regional influence are now holding talks on the issues together with major interested parties—Saudi Arabia and Turkey—and there are hopes that an expanded coalition against Daesh can be formed. Jordan, a member of the US-led coalition has now agreed to coordinate their airstrikes with Russia in southern Syria to ensure the rebels it supports won’t be struck.

Russia has also agreed to give air cover to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) battling Daesh on the grounds that it is a patriotic opposition force. Whether or not that protection will be extended to other Western-backed anti-regime rebels (as Al-Jazeera reports) fighting under the banner of “The Army of Conquest” isn’t clear.

If so, the Russian air force will be in the unusual position of defending opposing sides. In reality, Russian President Vladimir Putin is defending his country’s interests in Syria just as Obama has been primarily focused on preserving America’s own.

Working together, instead of pulling in different directions, Russia and America are capable of bringing longed-for peace to this stricken land. Moscow insists that the UAE, Jordan, Egypt and Iran should be invited to take part in talks to agree upon a political framework. How they get the foreign ministers of Egypt and Turkey to sit at the same table will be challenging at best, explosive at worst when the relationship between those countries have been bordering on outright hostility since 2012.

But the sticking point seems to be disagreements over the future role of President Bashar Assad, who could have avoided his country’s descent into civil war by stepping down in 2011. Tragically, he chose to permit Syria’s cities to be turned into Armageddon-type movie sets and breeding grounds for terrorists of all stripes.

There is no room for Assad when at last weapons are exchanged for peace, but Russia says his removal now would dismantle the state leaving a void swiftly filled by feuding terrorist groups on the lines of the Libyan experience. Putin also does not want to be seen throwing his increasingly inconvenient ally under a bus, which would not go down very well with Assad’s friends in Tehran and neither would it bolster Russia’s credibility with its other global partners.

However, to his credit, Putin is softening his stance by no longer calling for elections in which Assad is free to participate. Russia wants Assad along with all other moderate opposition forces to engage with the transitional process on the understanding that he’ll go.

US Secretary of State John Kerry agrees that he must, but says the timing is negotiable. That does not fit with the wishes of Turkish President Recip Tayyip Erdogan, who demands Assad’s immediate exit. He thinks all other options are tantamount to a climb-down making him look weak in the eyes of voters who will soon be re-heading to the ballot box.

Let’s face it, if major global and regional powers are unwilling to make compromises then how can anyone expect the warring parties to capitulate on any of their demands? Russia and the US must put their differences aside to shine a torch on a path to peace before others involved can get into step.

Linda S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.

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