Two-state, one-state or rogue state—it’s all Israel’s choice

Looking at the overall picture from the start of Benjamin Netanyahu’s tenure to the present, it’s clear that Israel’s prime minister has never had any intention of seriously negotiating a two-state solution. He said no to Palestinian statehood in the run-up to the March 2015 election to attract voters from the religious right, only to walk back that controversial statement following his triumph. From his perspective, the two-state principle is nothing more than a useful carrot to hang over the heads of the Palestinian National Authority and to appease critical global voices.

Bolstered by the ‘do as you please’ Trump factor, he has a green light to display his true colours and pander to what John Kerry characterised as “the most right-wing [cabinet] in Israel’s history,” without fear of international repercussions or annoying United Nations Security Council resolutions.

President Trump has made no bones about which side he’s on. His preference is to relocate the US embassy to occupied Jerusalem, a step that would effectively end even the faintest hopes of two states living in peace side-by-side. According to Nikki Haley, his newly appointed ambassador to the UN, countries that oppose US policy will be marked. “For those who don’t have our back [read Israel’s back] we are taking names,” she warned.

The new US administration frowned on the Middle East Peace Conference held in Paris earlier this month. Netanyahu described the conference as “useless,” slamming it as an “effort to force terms on Israel that conflict with our national needs.”

“This conference is among the last twitches of yesterday’s world. Tomorrow’s world will be different and it is very near,” he said. It’s already different. Thanks to President Donald Trump, Israeli exceptionalism is set in stone.

Unencumbered by White House condemnation, just days after Trump took office, Netanyahu accelerated Israel’s land grab with the announcement of 2,500 new homes on the West Bank that could signify the first wave of a mulled 13,000 units.

Abandoned by an impotent international community and the country that once claimed to be an honest broker but never really was, the Palestinian National Authority is left with few effective cards to play.

The BDS movement is well-intentioned but only succeeds in nipping at Israel’s economic heels. Palestine’s status as a non-member observer state within the United Nations was a moral victory that changed nothing on the ground.

The recent non-binding Security Council resolution demanding a cessation of colony activity—passed because the Obama administration neglected to use its veto—isn’t worth the paper it’s written on like so many others before it.

For 50-years Palestinians have been tenaciously clinging to hope. Over that period, the Palestinian National Authority has recognised Israel’s existence as a Jewish state, eschewed violence and lowered its expectations of regaining all the land occupied by Israel in 1967—despite the fact that Palestine’s right to sovereignty is enshrined in international law and the Geneva Conventions.

The late Yasser Arafat and his successor Mahmoud Abbas engaged in numerous rounds of US-mediated negotiations that went nowhere; each time they’ve neared fruition, there’s been a change of guard in either Washington or Tel Aviv, or both, resulting in Palestinians being hurtled back to square one.

Last nail

Last week, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat appealed to Trump on CNN not to move the embassy, explaining that doing so would be interpreted as the United States having accepted the annexation of occupied East Jerusalem, amounting to “the last nail in the coffin of the two-state solution.”

When asked how the Palestinian leadership would respond should the relocation proceed, Erekat said the PLO would revoke its recognition of Israel and disband the Palestinian National Authority, leaving Israel responsible for the salaries of Palestinian civil servants, doctors and teachers. Faced with no possibility of a two-state solution, he said Palestinians “will demand equal rights, equal citizenships . . . and we will try to accommodate ourselves in the one-state reality . . .” The idea of a single state causes terror in the hearts of most Israelis. Demographics would eventually spell the end of a Jewish state because the birth rate among Palestinians in 1948 areas [Israeli Arabs] and Palestinians is higher than that of Israeli Jews. Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danny Danon interpreted Erekat’s message as a threat!

Given that the one-state option is off the table as far as Israel is concerned, the only other path open is to maintain the status quo and I firmly believe that this is the only one with which Netanyahu is comfortable.

Netanyahu will continue blaming Abbas for refusing to participate in dead-end face- to-face talks. He will go on criticising him for his inability to represent all Palestinians and conversely for inviting Hamas to join a unity government. And, if and when, Palestinian frustrations erupt into violence, he will justify his brutal responses by branding the perpetrators “terrorists.”

Palestinians are damned if they do and damned if they don’t in the prevailing climate. They should not play into the Trump-Netanyahu duo’s hands. They must not allow their patience to run out during an era that’s not conducive to peacemaking, but attitudes change and the day when justice finally prevails will surely come.

Linda S. Heard is an award-winning British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.

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