Bush/Cheney aggression on Iraq destroyed the cradle of civilization. Along with over a dozen years of genocidal sanctions, millions of Iraqis perished.
Full-scale protracted US war on Iran could be much worse, a nation with over double Iraq’s population and much more able to hit back hard.
Post-9/11 US wars were largely localized. Attacking Iran would likely extend well beyond its borders. US area forces and its regional partners will be vulnerable, notably Israel and the Saudis if they gets involved.
If Hezbollah aids Iran if attacked, its tens of thousands of missiles able to strike anywhere in the Jewish state with more accuracy and destructive power than during Israel’s 2006 aggression could be hugely devastating.
The Islamic Republic no doubt will do whatever it takes to defend itself. Responsibility for what’s going on and the potential to become regional war if Iran is attacked lies in Washington and Europe for breaching the JCPOA their ruling authorities pledged to observe.
Without EU compliance, the deal is effectively null and void. In agreeing to the JCPOA, Iran sacrificed more than it got in return to have normalized relations with the West.
Without it and punishing sanctions affecting its economy and core exports, Tehran only choice is abandoning the JCPOA incrementally, what it’s doing, hoping for a European change of heart, not forthcoming so far, no signs of its ruling authorities breaking with unlawful Trump regime actions on Iran.
Like all nations the US targets for regime change, fabricated claims about the country are manufactured to justify what’s unjustifiable.
No evidence suggests Iran seeks nuclear weapons, just the opposite. Calling the country the world’s leading supporter of terrorism is a bald-faced Big Lie.
The US holds that dubious distinction hands down. NATO, Israel, and its other imperial partners share blame. The Islamic Republic is at peace with its neighbors, threatening none.
Trump is a blowhard. Ignore his bluster. Follow his actions alone. He likely wants war with Iran avoided.
While he hasn’t launched a new war on his own, he escalated inherited conflicts in multiple theaters, and his record in office shows he’s easily manipulated by dark forces surrounding him—notably because of his geopolitical ignorance.
If war erupts, it’ll be made in the USA, not Tehran. It could happen by accident or design. If launched, it could open the gates of hell to the severest US war since against Vietnam.
It ended in mighty America’s defeat, despite ravaging the country and massacring millions of Southeast Asians in three countries.
Iran has been preparing for possible US aggression for decades. The US hasn’t won a war since WW II. Endless violence and chaos continue in all its post-9/11 conflict theaters.
Invading Iran is out of the question. It would take an enormous force, the size the Pentagon would be hard-pressed to mobilize.
Aerial campaigns aren’t decisive. Years of conducting them in Syria failed to end the conflict, a task for ground forces aided by airpower.
US aerial attacks on Iran would likely result in missiles striking its regional forces, warships, bases and allies if Tehran believes they’re involved.
Reelection in 2020 is Trump’s top priority. Protracted war on Iran with significant US casualties headlined by media supporting Dems could ruin his chance—including his sought Nobel Peace Prize for engaging North Korea diplomatically, despite achieving nothing.
Except for Israel, the Saudis and UAE, the world community wants war on Iran avoided—though Britain would likely partner with US war on Iran as it’s done in all its wars.
Months into Trump’s first year in office, Russia responded to his regime’s “aggressive and threatening rhetoric (on Iran it called) unacceptable in international relations,” stressing that “resumption of [Security Council] sanctions [on the country] is out of the question.”
On Monday, Sergey Lavrov called the Trump regime’s actions on Iran “unacceptable …irresponsible behavior”—referring to its Security Council Res. 2231 breach, adopted to support the JCPOA, making the White House pullout a flagrant international law violation.
The same applies to Europe for its own breach of the international agreement.
The unresolved issue is where do things go from here? Will the Trump regime attack Iran or step back from the brink? Much rides on its intentions.
Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org. His new book as editor and contributor is titled “Flashpoint in Ukraine: How the US Drive for Hegemony Risks WW III.” Listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network.