When the Russians invaded Ukraine, the Western establishment and its obedient press opined that it would be a short-duration incursion, a quick defeat, and Russia would control the entire country in short shrift.
So why did it go so badly for Russia? President Putin believed Ukraine would simply cave, based on what happened to Georgia in 2008. But Russia had fought against Georgia in the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, not on ancient Georgian soil, so had the support of the locals who hate what they see as Georgian oppressors.
The difference is that Ukrainians are fighting on their own soil, so fight much better (and of course have modern Western arms supplied to them). The more modern weapons they are given by Western nations, the longer they can hold out, forcing Russia to increase pressure if it wants to reach its objectives.
Similar resistance in modern wars.
The Western establishment went into cardiac arrest when the Vietnamese defeated the Yankee Empire and its client states. USA had modern artillery, control of the skies, and control of the seas, so they couldn’t understand why they lost.
The Vietnamese National Liberation Front used old, outdated equipment. Captured weapons of theirs included crossbows, and rusty rifles from World Wars One and Two. One of their most effective weapons was the punji stake. Pound a stick into the ground at an angle facing one’s enemy, in high grass. Sharpen the stick and rub feces on it around the point. Fire shots or make noise to get the enemy to come after you and they embed the stakes into their leg, depositing feces deep enough that doctors couldn’t clean it.
The Vietnamese had an iron will to fight off foreign invaders. They had defeated the French at Dien Bien Phu, after all, in their rebellion against colonialism. They were on their own soil willing to fight to the death, if need be, for the homeland. American invaders did not have the same sense of purpose.
In Vietnam the West was not fighting with the support of the Vietnamese, as was reported in the Western press. South Vietnam’s (Republic of Vietnam) government was corrupt and propped up by Western military might, and did not have the support of the Vietnamese people. The masses were opposed to foreign invaders.
Russia should have known how this works, as they had intervened in Afghanistan to assist the socialist government in the 1970s. Afghan religious fanatics (assisted by the USA, eventually becoming a terrorist movement based in SW Asia and the Middle East) ran the Russians out, as have they ran the USA out more recently (and other empires going back to Alexander the Great). Like the Vietnamese, Afghans were fighting on their own soil against invaders.
Powerful military nations should always keep in mind that people fight much better on their own soil. Russia should know this from their own experience in World War II, when, in the end, with inferior weapons, they defeated invading Germans and showed an unbelievable willingness to die for their homeland, losing 20 million dead.
The adjustment Moscow has made in Ukraine since the start of the war is to move military operations to the East of Ukraine, where much of the population identify as Russian and speak Russian. This is where they hope to get the support of the people, enabling victory.
In the End.
The West should not keep pushing this war, because Russia will not suddenly claim “Looks like we’ve been defeated, so will simply regret having thousands of soldiers lost and retreat.” Russia is going to stay until they can claim some semblance of victory.
Much of Eastern Ukraine was once Russian and annexed to Ukraine by the old USSR under Nikita Kruschev.
Many Eastern Ukrainians don’t trust Kiev to do what’s in their best interests, and have, since the violent takeover of their government by anti-Russians in 2014, wanted to go the way of Crimea and become part of Russia.
A little Russian history.
Russia’s bloodiest wars have come from the West through what is now Ukraine. Napoleon attacked them from the West. Kaiser Wilhelm II attacked them from the West. Hitler attacked them from the West.
Russia sees intervention from the modern West in Ukraine, with plenty of evidence to support it. Moscow believes that this war in Ukraine is existential. Russia believes Eastern Ukraine is as Russian as anywhere, and has been for centuries. Moscow believes it is fighting on its own soil in Eastern Ukraine.
It doesn’t matter if many Westerners, owing to propaganda in its mainstream media, believe that Russia is conducting an immoral war. Moscow believes that they are in a war for their own survival. Should Ukraine join NATO, the West will have a potential invasion force directly on Russia’s border.
Before Russia allows defeat, it will use nuclear weapons, just as the USA would use them if its survival were at stake. This cannot be allowed, and every effort must be taken to keep it from happening.
The mainstream press continue to give only one side in the war, clearly a propaganda slinger for Kiev. Every mainstream media story about Ukraine seems to be about sending more weapons. It is nearly impossible to get an article into mainstream press promoting peace. Understanding is impossible as long as only one viewpoint is allowed. Roger Waters says the Ukrainians have him on a “kill list,” for urging peace, but you won’t see this on CNN.
It would be best for all concerned to have Eastern Ukraine ceded back to Russia, and promise not to further expand NATO into Ukraine, in return for a United Nations neutral peacekeeping force stationed in Ukraine, and embrace peace before we lose civilization entirely to global, thermonuclear war.
Jack Balkwill has been published from the little read Rectangle, magazine of the English Honor Society, to the (then) millions of readers USA Today and many progressive publications/web sites such as Z Magazine, In These Times, Counterpunch, This Can’t Be Happening, Intrepid Report, and Dissident Voice. He is author of “An Attack on the National Security State,” about peace activists in prison.
The peoples of the world are being forced to comply with the theft of their incomes to buy weapons for wars they don’t want. For those who don’t comply, the psychopath elites finish them off.